|Dew Point:||41.2°F (5.1°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||29.93" (1013.4 mb)|
Mostly CloudyLow: 48
RainHigh: 57 Low: 42
Partly SunnyHigh: 52 Low: 40
SunnyHigh: 58 Low: 36
SunnyHigh: 66 Low: 46
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. South wind around 5 mph.
Rain between 8am and 5pm, then a slight chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Southwest wind 5 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Northwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Northwest wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunny, with a high near 58.
Mostly clear, with a low around 36.
Sunny, with a high near 66.
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
... Low pressure will intensify today as it moves off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. A strong cold front will pass through late this afternoon into this evening while the rapidly intensifies off to our northeast. The low will move toward New England later tonight and Thursday before high pressure returns for Friday and into Saturday. Low pressure may impact the area Sunday before a cold front approaches next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Currently seeing some low clouds east of the Blue Ridge thanks to some shallow moisture advection ahead of an approaching cold front.
A strengthening area of surface low pressure, currently over the Great Lakes, will slide north of the area throughout the day today, with the attendant cold front pushing through from west to east this afternoon. This is associated with a deep mid/upper level trough swinging through the region. Meanwhile, another piece of mid/upper level energy embedded within the subtropical jet will initiated another surface low along a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast, before moving into the western Atlantic. As the northern stream energy becomes negatively tilted, surface low pressure will transfer offshore, as the two mid/upper lows phase into one off the New England coast. A much stronger low will result and track to the northeast. This, paired with the actual cold front passage, will result in a period of moderate rainfall today across much of the area, but especially in central MD and areas east. Thinking the bulk of the rainfall should be out of here by this evening, aside from upslope showers along/west of the Allegheny Front.
Behind the cold front, the concern will be with wind. A surge of gusty winds Wednesday night is expected, with gusts in the 25-30 mph range for much of the area, with even higher gusts on the higher peaks above 2500 feet. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been added for the higher elevations Wednesday night into Thursday. Additionally, the upslope showers along/west of the Blue Ridge will be ongoing, with even some snow mixing in for areas above 3000 feet, where lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Not expecting much in terms of accumulation, but can't rule out a dusting at the highest elevations. Elsewhere, overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Windy conditions will continue into the day on Thursday, as the aforementioned surface low continues to strengthen and move off to the northeast. A Wind Advisory should not be necessary on Thursday, but winds will still be gusting in the 30-40 mph range, so will certainly be our first big wind event of the season. Highest winds will be in the higher elevations, as well as in our northeast zones, where the pressure gradient will be tightening. This wind will last into Thursday afternoon, before diminishing into the evening, as the low moves farther away from the area.
Otherwise, we stay dry on Thursday for most of the area, aside from continued upslope induced showers along/west of the Allegheny Front, which could possibly mix with snow at times above 3000 feet. Not expecting accumulations during the day Thursday, but probably just going to see a few flakes mix in with rain. Highs across the region will be in the upper 50s to low 60s east of the Blue Ridge, with low to mid 50s west, and of course significantly colder on the ridge tops (mid 30s to mid 40s).
Upslope showers continue along/west of the Allegheny Front into early Thursday night, with the continued chance for some snow above 3000 feet. Lows Friday morning will be comparable to Thursday morning, if not a degree or two warmer.
Sunny and dry on Friday, as high pressure will be building into the region. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal on Friday, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows on Friday will be quite chilly, into the mid to upper 30s along/west of the Blue Ridge, perhaps even into the far western DC suburbs. Could see our fist widespread frost event across the area Friday night.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will gradually move offshore Saturday through Sunday and a return flow will develop. The high will remain close enough Saturday and Saturday night for dry and seasonable conditions.
For Sunday, weak low pressure associated with the southern stream of the jet will pass through the southeastern CONUS, and there is a chance that southern stream moisture overruns cooler air in place to cause rain. Confidence remains low due to divergence in guidance as to how far north the moisture makes it.
A storm system from the Rockies will move into the central CONUS Sunday night through Monday, causing a potent longwave upper-level trough to develop over the central CONUS. This will increase the southerly flow across our area, allowing for a warm front to pass through along with deep moisture advection. Unseasonably warm conditions are likely along with increasing chances for rain. As the upper-level trough shifts east, so to will the cold front associated with it. This will bring the chance for more showers Tuesday along with the likelihood for unseasonably warm conditions.