|Dew Point:||61.2°F (16.2°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.34" (1027.3 mb)|
Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 82 Low: 62
Mostly SunnyHigh: 85 Low: 63
Mostly Sunny then Chance Showers And ThunderstormsHigh: 83 Low: 58
SunnyHigh: 74 Low: 53
SunnyHigh: 78 Low: 58
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. West wind around 1 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southwest wind 0 to 3 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Southwest wind 2 to 6 mph.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind around 6 mph.
A slight chance of rain showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunny, with a high near 74.
Mostly clear, with a low around 53.
Sunny, with a high near 78.
... High pressure will remain over the region through the weekend with mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected. The high will shift off the southeast coast by Monday as a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley. In the wake of the frontal passage, high pressure will situate itself over the region once again through the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure across the Mid Atlantic remains the controlling influence to the weather early this morning. That will generally remain the case today, although a piece of shortwave energy riding over the top of the ridge axis combined with terrain circulations and daytime heating will provide enough lift to support scattered late day showers. Given model forecasts of meager instability would not rule out isolated thunder either. Believe that this activity will rapidly decrease after sunset.
Temperature forecasts on the high side of guidance have been verifying better, so will keep that trend going today (highs in the lower-mid 80s). Didnt stray far from a model blend tonight. Some cloud cover (moisture in the 925-800 mb layer) will interfere in radiational cooling
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will be positioned southeast of the area Sunday, with a mid-level ridge axis overhead. This setup will favor warmer and slightly more humid conditions, but without any feature that could support any precipitation. Mid-upper 80s should be common. Since 850 mb temps will be near 16C, not 18C, will shy away from forecasting 90F. That could happen Monday, as warm advection may continue ahead of an approaching cold front. Will bring the first showers into the mountains late morning, with the front/precip mostly during the afternoon hours. Once again, there is just enough instability to support isolated thunder.
During the evening, there are suggestions that showers will break apart as the front encounters the mid-level ridge and the better forcing remains across the northeastern United States. Have deviated from this slightly due to low-level convergence of the front and aforementioned minimal instability. However, the end result is to bring a small chance (20-30%) of precip across the area during the evening. QPF should be light.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period of the forecast will be characterized by an extended stretch of dry conditions and well above normal temperatures.
By Tuesday morning, a surface cold front will be situated well off to our south. Cooler and drier air will filter into the region in the wake of the front. Aloft, an upper-level trough axis located overhead will progress off to the east through the day, leading to large-scale subsidence as shortwave ridging builds in aloft. Temperatures will max out in the upper 70s to near 80 (which is still slightly above normal for late September). Ample sunshine is expected, and humidity values will be low, with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday, with widespread sunshine and high temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s.
By Thursday, a trough will track across Southern Canada and the Upper Great Lakes. This system will drive a decaying front through the Ohio Valley and eventually toward western portions of our forecast area late Thursday afternoon. Upper level forcing for ascent will be well removed from our area, but a few showers can't be ruled out over the West Virginia Panhandle as the decaying front approaches from the west. Elsewhere, dry condtions are in the forecast, along with warming temperatures. High temperatures will reach well into the 80s, and may even approach 90 in a few locales.
Toward the latter portions of next week into early next weekend, a substantial trough is expected to dig down across western portions of the CONUS, which will lead to downstream ridge building across the eastern US. There are signs that this ridge will be atypically strong for late September, leading to well above normal temperatures and a continuation of the dry weather pattern. It isn't out of the question that temperatures may once again reach 90 degrees by next weekend.