Bryce Resort / Basye

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Basye, VA

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... An area of low pressure will pass well to the north early this morning as high pressure builds to the south. High pressure will progress offshore later tonight. Areas of low pressure will pass both to the south and north late Sunday into Monday. Additional disturbances will continue to track to the south throughout portions of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Present conditions feature surface temperatures in the upper 20s to 30s with some passing mid-level clouds. Localized downsloping over eastern Grant County has raised temperatures into mid 40s around Petersburg, WV. The air mass remains quite dry in the low-levels with dew points ranging from the mid teens to low 20s. Consequently, a number of radar echoes showing up are likely not making it down to the ground. Aloft, a progressive low-amplitude shortwave is moving through western Maryland. A number of the high-resolution models were too inflated with 6-hour snowfall amounts. As such, have backed off on those solutions and lowered forecast amounts to a dusting to 0.2-0.3 inches over Garrett County. The passage of this trough has also led to occasional westerly gusts to 30-35 mph along the Allegheny Front.

With winds shifting to southwesterly, conditions will be much milder today as highs jump into the low/mid 50s across the lower elevations. Compared with late January climatology, these forecast high temperatures are around 6 to 10 degrees above average. Some high clouds will settle in over areas north of U.S. 50. Depending on how thick these high clouds become, some locations may see a slight reduction in their forecast temperatures. Conditions should be dry with southwesterly winds gusting up to 10-15 mph in the afternoon, locally to around 20-25 mph along the Allegheny ridgetops.

Cloud cover continues to increase into the overnight hours. This coupled with southerly warm advection will keep temperatures in the 30s. Any precipitation should hold off until Sunday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Subtle amplification in the flow aloft will carry a slow moving cold front toward the region on Sunday and Monday. Its progression may even halt at times with height tendencies becoming steady or even briefly rising. Broad ascent ahead of this system will keep skies cloudy on Sunday. Weak disturbances within the mid-level west-southwesterlies should provide enough lift for some showers, particularly over along the Alleghenies. Depending on how quickly precipitation moves in, a little freezing rain may mix in over the Potomac Highlands on Sunday morning. Do not anticipate any ice accretions though before the changeover to rain by the mid-morning. Areas farther east can expect a 20-40 percent chance of rain showers through the day. However, much of the day should stay dry with high temperatures around 2 to 4 degrees cooler than the previous day. On Sunday night, with the wavy cold front still off to the west, some precipitation chances linger overnight with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Monday will see the cold front gradually move across the region. Winds do not start responding to this frontal passage until the evening hours as west-northwesterly winds ensue. Monday may prove to be the mildest day of the period with high temperatures into the mid to upper 50s across the Shenandoah Valley and south of U.S. 50. A couple spots in central Virginia may even hit the 60 degree mark. Some showers may linger along the Alleghenies and up toward northeastern Maryland. Like the previous day, clouds will blanket the skies. However, there may be a break or two in the clouds yielding some sunshine. Cold advection into the night should draw temperatures down into the upper 20s to mid 30s, locally in the low/mid 20s over the mountains. As temperatures fall overnight, a wintry mix is possible along the Alleghenies.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... By Tuesday, precip with a deep south origin will continue to move through the Mid-Atlantic region. Models are beginning to agree on a drier/less wintry solution for now with this system. Confidence is highest in accumulating snow fall across the Allegheny Front. During the overnight hours, temperatures likely fall below freezing for a large portions of the area and therefore could assist in some locations seeing a rain-snow mix given the latest bufkit sounding profiles. The system continues to bring a lot of uncertainty with it and therefore warrants more focus on the potential for some widespread wintry weather impacts to portions of the area through mid-week. As mentioned previously, with systems like this having overruning precipitation, freezing rain may be possible but is unlikely at this moment during thi event. Highs for both Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

As the system begins to evolve later Wednesday and move further offshore, lingering low-level moisture will keep snow chances for the mountains and some light to moderate rain showers as well during the day on Wednesday and Friday. High pressure likely follows in behind this disturbance later Thursday and into Friday. Near average temperatures are expected for late in the workweek.

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